Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 9 Administrators Share Posted January 9 SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will continue shifting across the Gulf Coast region through early Tuesday morning, from southern Louisiana eastward to the western Florida Panhandle. Strong tornadoes are possible. ...Discussion... Strong/occasionally severe thunderstorms are ongoing this evening -- near and ahead of a cold front that currently stretches from the Ozarks southward across north-central Louisiana, and then southwestward along the Texas Coast. Ahead of the cold front, warm/moist air continues streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front draped west-northwest to east-southeast across southern Louisiana. The warm front continues to make gradual northward/northeastward progress in tandem with the eastward advance of the cold front, which will allow the narrow warm sector between the two boundaries to shift across the central Gulf Coast region through the remainder of the period. While some risk for hail will persist overnight even north of the warm front, the primary severe risk will remain focused near and south of this boundary, where dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s continue to support an amply unstable airmass for strong updrafts. The main contributor to the degree of wind/tornado potential currently forecast remains the very strong -- and intensifying -- deep-layer wind field preceding the main upper system (that is now advancing into/across the central/southern Plains). As the southerly low-level jet further strengthens across this region, atop southeasterly surface winds in proximity of the warm front, shear highly favorable for strongly rotating supercells is evident. While weak boundary-layer stability even within the warm sector -- especially with eastward extent overnight -- should place some limit on the overall tornado/wind risk, the offsetting high-end wind field across this region will support potential for significant severe weather locally, both in the form of damaging winds, and strong tornadoes. Risk should extend as far east as central portions of the Florida Panhandle through latter stages of the period. ..Goss.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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