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Mesoscale Discussion 0023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...southwestern LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 090207Z - 090300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes may
increase this evening over the eastern fringe of WW1 as the QLCS has
shown increased organization.

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, observational data has shown an
increase in organization of the QLCS over parts of southwestern LA.
Increasing lightning flash rates and echo top heights indicate more
robust convection has become established along the line as deeper
surface moisture (upper 60s F surface dewpoints) has moved onshore.
This trend should continue as low-level mass response increases
ahead of the main upper trough as evidenced by the increasingly
strong 1-2km flow from New Orleans TDWR VWP. With strong low-level
shear (0-1km 400+ m2/s2) and moderate buoyancy in place, a more
organized QLCS will likely be capable of damaging gusts and line
embedded tornadoes this evening.

..Lyons.. 01/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29769295 30529238 30989204 31069183 30989170 30789165
            30489158 30129145 29959135 29729123 29449130 29369152
            29339169 29369227 29419274 29449303 29769295 

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