Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 9 Administrators Share Posted January 9 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some lightning is possible in rain and snow showers near the Pacific Northwest coast and across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin on Wednesday. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging within the split westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and in the wake of a broad, but weakening, cyclone migrating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, cyclonic flow and seasonably low mid-level heights likely will encompass much of North America through this period. Within this regime, to the east of the ridging, a couple of notable digging short wave perturbations are forecast to contribute to amplification of the larger-scale troughing inland of the North American Pacific coast. Models indicate that one, of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins, will progress southeastward inland of the Pacific Northwest coast, through much of the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin by late Wednesday night. Another, emerging from the northern Canadian Arctic vicinity, is forecast to turn southward into the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Canadian Prairies. In lower levels, a cold front trailing the departing cyclone appears likely to continue advancing away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling and weakening near or south of the Florida Straits/Keys into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, surface troughing may slowly begin to deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies through the lower Rio Grande Valley, accompanied by northward return of a moistening boundary layer across the western Gulf of Mexico. By late Wednesday night, this may include surface dew point increases to near or above 60 F, beneath relatively warm, dry and capping lower/mid-tropospheric air. Beneath a pocket of colder air aloft associated with the inland advancing short wave, which may include 500 mb temperatures around -35 C, some convection capable of producing lightning appears possible near Washington and Oregon coastal areas early Wednesday. Potential for lightning inland of coastal areas remains unclear. However, latest available forecast soundings suggest that there may be enough boundary layer warming to contribute to marginally favorable thermodynamic profiles in a corridor from near the Great Salt Lake into parts of the northern Sierra Nevada by late Wednesday afternoon, aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent. ..Kerr.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.