Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 9 Administrators Share Posted January 9 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA...AND ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALVES OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states today, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...East/Southeast... A strong/deepening upper low is forecast to shift east-northeastward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area today, accompanied by a broad zone of intense deep-layer cyclonic flow that will surrounding this system. An associated/occluded surface low will shift northeastward across the Midwest toward the Upper Great Lakes, while a strong cold front expected to be crossing the Tennessee Valley/central Gulf Coast region moves quickly eastward across the East Coast States through afternoon/evening. Along the front, within an amply unstable warm sector, an organized band of strong/locally severe storms is forecast to be ongoing across the Alabama vicinity at the start of the period. Given highly favorable deep-layer shear, owing to winds increasing and veering with height through the troposphere, wind gusts locally capable of producing damage, and the possibility of strong tornadoes, will exist. Additionally, any pre-frontal, cellular storms which may evolve with time would likely become supercells, posing particular risk for a strong tornado. With time, as the line of storms advances eastward across Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through midday, some increase in low-level theta-e advection off the Gulf Stream into the Carolinas is expected. This will act to partially offset the widespread/ongoing cloud cover and showery precipitation across this area, to allow some surface-based destabilization of the warm sector to occur. Eventual development of pre-frontal, cellular convection may gradually evolve as a result, which -- given the extremely strong deep-layer wind field -- would likely yield a secondary area of higher-probability tornado risk, to include the potential for strong tornadoes. Meanwhile, strong/damaging wind gusts are expected across the East Coast states as far north as southeastern Virginia, as bands of storms accompany frontal passage across this area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss/Lyons.. 01/09/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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