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SPC Jan 9, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z


Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across
parts of central and eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail,
wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday.

To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the
split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable
short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast
to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies, into the northern U.S.
intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night.  Downstream
of this perturbation, another short wave trough, of northern
mid-latitude Pacific origins, is forecast to dig through the
Southwestern international border area, before rapidly pivoting east
of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau through the
southern Great Plains by the end of the period.

As stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent associated with the lead
perturbation approaches the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, it still appears
that a surface low may begin to consolidate within deepening surface
troughing across the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi
Valley.  Timing of the onset of more rapid deepening is becoming a
bit more unclear, but still seems probable prior to 12Z Friday. 
Once this occurs, a more substantive inland influx of low-level
moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico, is expected to contribute to increasing near-surface
or surface-based destabilization.  This appears likely to be aided
by steepening lapse rates associated with mid-level cooling, in the
exit region of an intense jet streak (northwesterly to westerly at
100-120 kt around 500 mb).  

Coincident with strengthening southerly lower-level flow (in excess
of 50 kt) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly
intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather 
potential is possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier.  The
mid/upper forcing for ascent may contribute to thunderstorm
initiation as early and far west as late Thursday evening near the
(roughly) I-35 corridor of central Texas.  This may gradually evolve
into an upscale growing and organizing cluster across eastern Texas
into western Louisiana and Arkansas, with an additional area of
downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible
closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period.

..Kerr.. 01/09/2024

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