Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 9 Administrators Share Posted January 9 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS) continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12 hours. Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level moisture. Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer) and low-level shear. And models suggest that a dryline structure might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it progresses eastward. Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity. However, it is still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period. Conditionally the environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and high convective wind gusts. Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend, model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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