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SPC Jan 9, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output (including the ECENS/GEFS and ECMWF/GFS)
continues to indicate that rapid, strong cyclogenesis will proceed
Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a
vigorous short wave impulse pivots northeast of the southern Great
Plains.  As the center of the growing cyclone tracks from Arkansas
into and through the lower Ohio Valley during the day Friday, lowest
surface pressures may fall as much as 15-20 mb in 12  hours.

Latest guidance is more suggestive that the stronger mid/level
cooling might tend to shift north of the moistening warm sector
overspreading the central into eastern Gulf Coast states by midday. 
While warm mid/upper layers could potentially be mitigating to
destabilization and severe weather potential during the afternoon
through evening across Alabama and Georgia into the Carolinas, this
may be compensated for by a continued increase in low-level
moisture.  

Increased inhibition and weaker mid/upper support might actually be
more conducive to discrete supercell development in the presence of
intense wind fields (including 50-80+ kts in the 850-700 mb layer)
and low-level shear.  And models suggest that a dryline structure
might develop ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone as it
progresses eastward.  Due to lingering uncertainties severe weather
probabilities are being maintained at 15 percent across the eastern
Gulf into southern Atlantic Coast states vicinity.  However, it is
still possible that severe weather probabilities will need to be
increased in later outlooks for this period.  Conditionally the
environment appears potentially conducive to strong tornadoes and
high convective wind gusts.

Following diminishing convective potential over the coming weekend,
model output remains quite varied concerning the possibility for
another developing surface cyclone across the Gulf of Mexico through
Atlantic Seaboard vicinity early next week.

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