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SPC Jan 9, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CAROLINAS....

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong), damaging to severe gusts and isolated hail
are expected over parts of the Southeast, from the eastern Gulf
Coast to the coastal Carolinas.

...Southeast states...
A deep upper low is over the mid MS valley today, with an associated
100+ knot mid-level jet max rotating across the TN Valley.  A line
of intense thunderstorms extends from northeast-southwest GA into
the FL panhandle and the eastern Gulf.  These storms will progress
rapidly eastward today across FL and the Carolinas, where very
strong southerly low-level winds will advect an increasingly moist
and marginally unstable air mass northward.

The convective line is currently well-ahead of the primary cold
front.  However, model guidance suggests that the front will
overtake the line through the afternoon, resulting in enhanced
forcing and likely contributing to thunderstorm intensification. 
Instability ahead of the line will be marginal, but extremely strong
wind speeds and shear (850mb wind speeds of 80-90 knots) suggest the
risk of widespread strong to damaging wind gusts in vicinity of the
squall line.  Also, numerous QLCS circulations and attendant risk of
tornadoes have been noted along the line this morning, and may at
least occasionally continue through the day in some corridors.

..Hart/Bentley.. 01/09/2024

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