Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 14 Administrators Share Posted January 14 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms will be low across most of the CONUS, but a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out over parts of south Florida and parts of southern New England. ...Discussion... Cold, stable conditions are expected to encompass most of the CONUS through the day1 period. Although offshore flow is now dominant, very steep low-level lapse rates will spread across southern New England as the Polar Jet sags south of the region. Latest model guidance suggests surface-3km values will exceed 8 C/km. Forecast soundings exhibit weak surface-based buoyancy with upwards of 100 J/kg by 20-22z across southeast New England. This profile should support weak convection and a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out. Across south Florida, weak buoyancy will linger through 18z across this region. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE. Given the weak warm advection, a few elevated showers may attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. Even so, this activity should remain quite isolated. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 01/14/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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