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MD 0085 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX HILL COUNTRY
MD 0085 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Areas affected...TX Hill Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240734Z - 240930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible for the next few hours
across the Texas Hill Country.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown an increase in storm
intensity across the TX Hill Country over the past hour, with
supercellular characteristics noted within the storm over Frio,
Atascosa, and southern Bexar Counties. This increase in storm
strength is occurring near a local maximum of effective bulk shear
within recent mesoanalysis, which is likely related to enhanced
mid-level flow noted on the KEWX VAD. Given the elevated character
of these storms, the primary severe risk is large hail. Low-level
stability should limit the threat for damaging gusts, but a gust or
two may become strong enough to penetrate through this stability to
reach the surface.

..Mosier/Goss.. 01/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29039901 29549852 29879727 29499689 29079688 28749737
            28799862 29039901 

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