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SPC Feb 15, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a
subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the
southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on
Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the
Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday
evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally
in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the
ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward
through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop
along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front,
there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become
elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail
may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the
Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient
deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But,
overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low
hail/wind probabilities at this time.

..Gleason.. 02/15/2024

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