Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted February 27 Administrators Share Posted February 27 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm chances will likely continue across the Gulf Coast States/Southeast on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a series of weak/low-amplitude upper shortwave troughs migrate across the region. In the low-levels this area will remain under the influence of high pressure and any deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the immediate coastal areas, with limited inland destabilization. Coupled with weak vertical shear, severe storms are not anticipated. By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, spread in medium range guidance has increased over the past 24 hours. During this time, an upper trough over the western U.S. is forecast to emerge into the central U.S. However, forecast guidance handles the eastward evolution of the trough very differently. The ECMWF progresses a much lower-amplitude trough eastward across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, while a secondary, weaker, southern stream shortwave trough moves across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, the GFS maintains its solution of a deeper, more neutral to negatively tilted upper trough traversing the Plains and MS Valley. These differences in the upper pattern have large impacts on surface cyclogenesis, cold front position/timing and quality of low-level moisture return. While some severe potential may develop in this general pattern somewhere from the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley, uncertainty in most favorable location and timing remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time for the Days 6-7/Sun-Mon time period. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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