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SPC Feb 27, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will likely continue across the Gulf Coast
States/Southeast on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat as a series of
weak/low-amplitude upper shortwave troughs migrate across the
region. In the low-levels this area will remain under the influence
of high pressure and any deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain
confined to the immediate coastal areas, with limited inland
destabilization. Coupled with weak vertical shear, severe storms are
not anticipated. 

By Days 6-7/Sun-Mon, spread in medium range guidance has increased
over the past 24 hours. During this time, an upper trough over the
western U.S. is forecast to emerge into the central U.S. However,
forecast guidance handles the eastward evolution of the trough very
differently. The ECMWF progresses a much lower-amplitude trough
eastward across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, while a
secondary, weaker, southern stream shortwave trough moves across TX
into the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, the GFS maintains its solution
of a deeper, more neutral to negatively tilted upper trough
traversing the Plains and MS Valley. These differences in the upper
pattern have large impacts on surface cyclogenesis, cold front
position/timing and quality of low-level moisture return. While some
severe potential may develop in this general pattern somewhere from
the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley, uncertainty
in most favorable location and timing remains too high to include 15
percent probabilities at this time for the Days 6-7/Sun-Mon time
period.

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