Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted February 29 Administrators Share Posted February 29 SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns will peak this weekend in parts of the southern High Plains with adjacent portions of the central/southern Plains also seeing some degree of fire weather risk. The primary feature of interest will be a broad, low-amplitude trough in the West that will eventually lift northward by next week. Model variability is relatively high even beginning next Monday. However, fire weather concerns do appear to be less during next week and are not likely to increase until the next trough nears the Plains, which may not occur until late next week. ...Portions of Central/Southern Plains... Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest this weekend in parts of the southern High Plains. Recent snowfall has occurred in parts of eastern New Mexico into West Texas. While short term fuel dryness will be reduced, dry and windy conditions will occur beginning Friday and increase on Saturday and Sunday. Critical meteorological conditions appear likely on Saturday, but until certainty in fuel dryness after snow melt can be assessed probabilities will not be increased. Northern portions of the Texas Panhandle look to have observed much less precipitation making Critical conditions more likely in that area. Sunday will see similar conditions to Saturday. Fuels should have dried sufficiently from Saturday conditions to allow for greater Critical fire weather potential. Critical conditions on Sunday could extend into the Permian Basin, but confidence farther south away from the stronger 850/500 mb winds is lower. Model guidance already significantly diverges by Monday. The ECMWF shows a very flat trough lifting north while the GFS develops a secondary shortwave that pivots into the Southwest. The GFS solution would bring an additional day of critical fire weather for the southern High Plains. However, the GFS solution appears to be an outlier given its own high run-to-run variability and in comparison to the much more consistent signals in the ECMWF. ..Wendt.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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