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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

Fire weather concerns will peak this weekend in parts of the
southern High Plains with adjacent portions of the central/southern
Plains also seeing some degree of fire weather risk. The primary
feature of interest will be a broad, low-amplitude trough in the
West that will eventually lift northward by next week. Model
variability is relatively high even beginning next Monday. However,
fire weather concerns do appear to be less during next week and are
not likely to increase until the next trough nears the Plains, which
may not occur until late next week.

...Portions of Central/Southern Plains...
Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest this weekend in
parts of the southern High Plains. Recent snowfall has occurred in
parts of eastern New Mexico into West Texas. While short term fuel
dryness will be reduced, dry and windy conditions will occur
beginning Friday and increase on Saturday and Sunday. Critical
meteorological conditions appear likely on Saturday, but until
certainty in fuel dryness after snow melt can be assessed
probabilities will not be increased. Northern portions of the Texas
Panhandle look to have observed much less precipitation making
Critical conditions more likely in that area. Sunday will see
similar conditions to Saturday. Fuels should have dried sufficiently
from Saturday conditions to allow for greater Critical fire weather
potential.  Critical conditions on Sunday could extend into the
Permian Basin, but confidence farther south away from the stronger
850/500 mb winds is lower.

Model guidance already significantly diverges by Monday. The ECMWF
shows a very flat trough lifting north while the GFS develops a
secondary shortwave that pivots into the Southwest. The GFS solution
would bring an additional day of critical fire weather for the
southern High Plains. However, the GFS solution appears to be an
outlier given its own high run-to-run variability and in comparison
to the much more consistent signals in the ECMWF.

..Wendt.. 02/29/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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