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SPC Mar 1, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Friday morning.

...Eastern TX into southern MS...
A stable air mass currently exists at the surface across the region,
and extends 50-100+ miles southward across the northern Gulf of
Mexico as well. Therefore, while theta-e advection will increase
this evening in association with the shortwave trough moving from
the Red River to the lower OH Valley, only elevated thunderstorms
are anticipated.

00Z observed soundings show the stable air mass, with relatively
poor lapse rates aloft and minimal MUCAPE. While CAPE values will
increase overnight (especially across southern LA), the deep, nearly
saturated profiles should minimize hail potential.

..Jewell.. 03/01/2024

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