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SPC Mar 1, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

A strong shortwave trough will lift northeast across the northern
Plains on Sunday while evolving into a closed upper low, as several
weaker perturbations move quickly east within a strong mid-level jet
from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies. An associated
surface low will lift north from the northern Plains into Manitoba
during the day.  Despite very minimal instability, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across the upper Midwest where strong
deep-layer ascent will develop via low-level warm advection and lift
with the upper trough. Isolated lightning strikes may also occur
near the coast from northern CA northward. 

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the general vicinity of
a surface front from FL west to the central Gulf Coast, where weak
instability (generally less than 750 J/kg) is expected to be

Although low-level moisture will increase across eastern portions of
TX/OK Sunday within strengthening southerly low-level flow, a
pronounced capping inversion will be present and this is likely to
preclude thunderstorm development despite gradually increasing

..Bunting.. 03/01/2024

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