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SPC Mar 1, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Monday...
As the broad upper trough moves east, a cold front will extend
across the southern Plains northeast into the Great Lakes Monday.
Steadily increasing boundary-layer moisture and steepening mid-level
lapse rates will contribute to areas of moderate instability.  A 15
percent total severe risk area was considered in the general
vicinity of the Arklatex, however lingering differences in both
ensemble and deterministic guidance regarding the favorable overlap
of shear and instability, coupled with uncertainty on the presence
and magnitude of large-scale lift, leads to low confidence in
introducing a risk area with this outlook.  

...Day 5 and Beyond...
Substantial differences in 500 mb flow patterns are noted as the
week progresses, with the ECMWF/Canadian solutions depicting a
strong upper trough over the southwest U.S. while the GFS has shown
considerable run-to-run variability.  Although predictability
remains too low for a 15% total daily severe area on any given day,
some severe potential may exist given stronger mid-level flow
becoming established with a southern stream jet.

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