Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 1 Administrators Share Posted March 1 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday... As the broad upper trough moves east, a cold front will extend across the southern Plains northeast into the Great Lakes Monday. Steadily increasing boundary-layer moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to areas of moderate instability. A 15 percent total severe risk area was considered in the general vicinity of the Arklatex, however lingering differences in both ensemble and deterministic guidance regarding the favorable overlap of shear and instability, coupled with uncertainty on the presence and magnitude of large-scale lift, leads to low confidence in introducing a risk area with this outlook. ...Day 5 and Beyond... Substantial differences in 500 mb flow patterns are noted as the week progresses, with the ECMWF/Canadian solutions depicting a strong upper trough over the southwest U.S. while the GFS has shown considerable run-to-run variability. Although predictability remains too low for a 15% total daily severe area on any given day, some severe potential may exist given stronger mid-level flow becoming established with a southern stream jet. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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