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SPC Mar 1, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are
most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West
Coast.

...Discussion...
As an upper trough continues to depart the Northeast, a temporarily
lower-amplitude/rather zonal flow field over the U.S. will gradually
begin to reamplify.  This will occur primarily with respect to a
deep upper low off the British Columbia coast, that will drift
slowly southeastward.  As this occurs, the broader cyclonic flow
field surrounding the low will expand/amplify across the West.

With persistent moist/westerly upslope flow into the higher
elevations of the West resulting from the slow southward drift of
this upper system, lightning potential will likewise continue,
particularly across western portions of Washington and Oregon and
into northern and central California.

Meanwhile, showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms continue
across the central Gulf Coast states, in advance of a
southern-stream short-wave trough.  As the system advances eastward
today, thunder potential will likewise spread across the Southeast
through the end of the period.  In all areas, severe weather remains
unlikely.

..Goss/Broyles.. 03/01/2024

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