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SPC Mar 1, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the day on Saturday.
Surface low associated with this shortwave will likely be over
central NC early Saturday before then moving northeastward in tandem
with its parent wave and ending the period just off the southern New
England coast. Cold front attendant to this surface low will likely
stretch back westward across southern GA and the western FL
Panhandle early Saturday before gradually shifting southeastward and
becoming increasingly diffuse with time. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible within the warm-air advection zone near the low over
coastal NC Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected
in the vicinity of the front from southern GA and the FL Panhandle
through the FL Peninsula. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is
forecast to move from the central Gulf of Mexico through northern FL
Saturday evening into Sunday morning, helping to foster additional
thunderstorm development behind the primary frontal zone throughout
the evening. In all of these cases, limited buoyancy and weak
vertical shear should mitigate the severe thunderstorm potential.

Broad upper troughing is expected to deepen across the western CONUS
while an embedded shortwave trough progresses within its base from
central CA across the Great Basin and central Rockies. Despite
relatively cool surface conditions, very cold mid-level temperatures
associated with this trough will support steep lapse rates and
limited buoyancy, mostly from the Pacific Northwest coast and over
the Sacramento Valley. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible
throughout the period in these areas. Additionally, a few updrafts
may become deep enough along the frontal band as it moves through
the Great Basin to produce lightning.

..Mosier.. 03/01/2024

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