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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

The previous forecast remains on track. The only changes made to the
current forecast were to expand Elevated highlights farther south
into Far West Texas, with expansions also made farther east into
northwestern Oklahoma. Critical highlights were also expanded
farther north into eastern Colorado, and farther east into western
Kansas. Expansions were made to reflect the latest guidance
consensus in dry and windy conditions supporting wildfire spread
tomorrow/Saturday afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/

...Synopsis...
An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer
west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, with the
leading edge of the strong flow aloft crossing the Rockies during
the afternoon. At the same time, a lee surface cyclone will rapidly
deepen over the northern High Plains, while a lee trough and tight
surface pressure gradient develop southward along the
central/southern High Plains. This evolution will lead to a large
area of strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH
across much of the High Plains, where elevated to critical
fire-weather conditions are expected. 

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Strong downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing across the
central/southern High Plains will support an expansive area of
10-percent minimum RH and temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid
70s despite increasing high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale
trough. Here, the tightening surface pressure gradient and mixing
into the strong flow aloft will favor widespread 20-25 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given drying
of fine fuels across the region on D1/Friday, Critical fire-weather
conditions are expected across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM,
the TX/OK Panhandles, far western OK, and far southwest KS.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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