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SPC Mar 2, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal flow aloft will be prevalent across the CONUS beginning
next Tuesday. Model guidance has reasonable agreement that a lead
shortwave trough will develop in the southern Appalachians late
Tuesday into Wednesday. This feature will promote a modestly deep
surface cyclone in the Southeast that will lift north and east with
time. Farther west, a broader and more amplified trough is forecast
to evolve within the lower Colorado River Valley by midweek. This
lower-latitude feature will shift eastward and eject into the
southern Plains around Thursday. While model guidance diverges on
the evolution of this trough by the end of next week, the general
theme is that the trough will intensify as it move into the
Southeast.

While there will be moisture return ahead of the stronger western
trough, the presence of the surface low near the eastern Gulf will
drive offshore flow. This will act to restrict the magnitude/quality
of moisture return into the southern Plains. Severe weather could
occur in the southern Plains on Thursday, but uncertainty remains
too high for highlights.

Additional potential for severe weather may exist Friday into the
weekend from east Texas into the Southeast. However, given the low
latitude nature of the trough, there is ample uncertainty as to the
degree of quality moisture return inland. Models differ with regard
to the position and evolution of the surface low next weekend.
Confidence remains too low for highlights this far in advance.

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