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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z


The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes
or additions made.

..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/

An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer
west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS,
with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the
Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone
will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern
Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure
gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern
Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of
warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High
Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical
fire-weather conditions. 

...Central and Southern High Plains...
The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust
downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High
Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10
percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same
time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep
boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an
expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
(with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could
reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas
farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across
the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather
conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather
conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and
the TX Panhandle.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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