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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


The major change made to this outlook was to expand Elevated
highlights into much of the central Plains. Some questions remain
regarding how strong the surface winds will become within either the
post cold-frontal regime or immediately ahead of the surface trough.
Nonetheless, there is a general agreement among guidance members
that some increase in sustained winds (i.e. 15+ mph) is likely over
parts of the central Plains Sunday afternoon. In addition, prolonged
dry conditions across the central Plains suggest that fuels should
support rapid wildfire-spread. Furthermore, the latest guidance
consensus shows RH dipping into the 20-25 percent range by afternoon
ahead and immediately behind the cold front as a very dry boundary
layer advects northeast from the High Plains over the next 24 hours.

If later guidance consensus shows stronger winds/lower RH across the
central Plains than what is currently depicted, an upgrade to
Critical highlights may be needed by Day 1. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track across the southern High Plains, where Critical
highlights have been maintained.

..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/

A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will persist across the
central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on D2/Sunday, with the
primary embedded speed maximum expected to cross the CO Rockies
during the afternoon. This will yield lee cyclogenesis over eastern
CO/western KS, with an associated tight surface pressure gradient
developing across much of the central and southern High Plains.
Similar to D1/Saturday, this pattern will favor an expansive area of
warm, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels -- with
elevated to critical fire-weather conditions expected. 

...Central and Southern High Plains...
In response to the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep
boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, an expansive
area of 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with
higher gusts) are expected across much of the central and southern
High Plains. Here, continued downslope warming/drying and deep
mixing will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Slightly cooler
temperatures and higher RH are expected along the I-25 corridor,
though gusts upwards of 60 mph and receptive fuels should compensate
for this. While guidance suggests a slight minimum in the strong
sustained surface winds over parts of the TX South Plains, low RH
and breezy/gusty surface winds should still favor near-critical to
critical conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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