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SPC Mar 2, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z


Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe
wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon.

Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong
upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb
jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east
into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours,
which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of
the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the
Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a
diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the
Gulf/Atlantic coasts. 

...Utah into far eastern Nevada...
Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over
northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped
to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east
across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level
trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in
12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of
UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted
along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity
should persist amid downstream destabilization through the
afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the
front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep
low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP
mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are
possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon.  

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL
through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary
gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC
soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken
mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal
destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If
temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal
heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition
and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level
flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem
plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on
whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over
the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/02/2024

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