SPC MD 184

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 0184 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA

Mesoscale Discussion 0184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain of the central
Sierra Nevada

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 022116Z - 030215Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in heavy snowfall rates is anticipated
heading into the late afternoon/evening hours within the higher
terrain of the central Sierra Nevada range in California. Snowfall
rates of 2-3 inches/hour appear possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and regional radar composites have
recently shown a temporary lull in precipitation/snowfall rates
along the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada over the past hour.
However, recent RAP upper air analyses and GOES water-vapor imagery
indicate that the nose of a 100+ knot mid-level jet is beginning to
push into central CA. Broadscale ascent within the left-exit region
of this wave, combined with an increase in orographic ascent along
the Sierra Nevada owing to strengthening mid-level winds, should
promote a gradual uptick in precipitation across central CA late
this afternoon into the evening hours. Recent high-res guidance
indicates multiple rounds of heavier precipitation bands moving into
the region during the 23-03 UTC time frame as ascent increases. Both
deterministic and probabilistic guidance suggest that the potential
for snowfall rates between 2-3 inches/hour will increase during this
period for higher elevations (generally above 5 kft) where
temperatures are below freezing.

..Moore.. 03/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON   36741877 37071933 38652051 38872057 39072040 39112017
            38952003 38631982 38221940 37911914 37651895 37481864
            37341848 37171837 36971833 36771829 36681841 36661854
            36741877 

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