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SPC Mar 3, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly
Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley.

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the
start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the
lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally
severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place
across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave
trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the
Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day.
Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through
Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens.
Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft
organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. 

Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail
may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either
weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust
thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears
highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the
airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east
TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence
behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional
development both along the dryline and with a slowly
southeastward-moving cold front.

..Gleason.. 03/03/2024

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