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SPC Mar 3, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East
Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient
moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support
thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to
keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal.

Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to
advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern
Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee
cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the
southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response
should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across
parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast.

Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around
Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be
present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe
threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of
central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects
eastward over these areas.

By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of
the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the
low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe
threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an
advancing cold front.

While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for
Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley),
and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble
model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing
severe potential with this ejecting upper trough.

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