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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist
across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave
trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the
northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow
aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee
cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these
developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across
much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where
seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread
elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. 

...Southern High Plains...
Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High
Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher
along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern
High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient.
In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft
will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60
mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty
surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the
strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions
given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in
sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing
to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH
should still support near-critical to critical conditions. 

For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will
generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface
temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph
sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly,
20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher
gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the
eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH
here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are
still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop
increasingly receptive fuels.

..Weinman.. 03/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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