Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 3 Administrators Share Posted March 3 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...WI and mid MS Valley... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central U.S. on Monday. Although an occluded surface low will migrate north into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest Great Lakes/mid MS Valley. The latest model guidance varies some on the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector (south-central WI vs. WI/IL border). Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the 60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies. It remains unclear whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop. If storms manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL vicinity. Additional storm development is likely during the evening along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it moves into IN during the overnight. ...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the period. Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley. A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will result in steep lapse rates. Strong high-level westerly flow will probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a possibility with any robust/sustained storm. A more moist/weaker instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley. Some of the stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging wind threat. Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. ..Smith.. 03/03/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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