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SPC Mar 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z


Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the remainder of tonight.

...Northern WI into Upper MI...
Thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across northwest WI,
along and ahead of a cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone
centered near the ND/MN/MB border. Strong ascent in combination with
steep low/midlevel lapse rates across the region has compensated for
generally limited low-level moisture, though buoyancy remains weak,
with MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Small hail and gusty winds
will remain possible with these storms as they move across northern
WI into Upper MI and over Lake Superior through the evening. See MCD
187 for more information. 

A downward trend in storm coverage/intensity has been noted over
Florida this evening, though an ongoing storm cluster west of Lake
Okeechobee could pose a threat for small hail and gusty winds for as
long as it persists. Substantial earlier convective overturning over
much of the Peninsula and the loss of diurnal heating should
contribute to a continued overall weakening trend with time tonight.

..Dean.. 03/04/2024

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