Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 4 Administrators Share Posted March 4 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level, southern-stream shortwave trough will be located over the lower MS Valley at the start of the period Tuesday morning. This feature should continue moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states and Southeast through early Wednesday morning. Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley in association with modest lift attendant to the shortwave trough. Although boundary-layer instability may be somewhat muted Tuesday morning with lingering MLCIN, the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass should contribute to weak to moderate instability developing by Tuesday afternoon east of a surface dryline across east TX, and south of a cold front extending from central/eastern OK into the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the ongoing activity Tuesday morning, as enhanced mid-level winds with the shortwave trough contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Various high-resolution model guidance suggests potential for this morning activity to consolidate into one or more clusters as it spreads east-southeastward over the lower MS Valley. If this occurs, then perhaps a greater damaging wind threat may exist assuming sufficient destabilization is realized. Once these thunderstorms move offshore, the isolated severe threat should generally lessen across the lower MS Valley, except for in the vicinity of the cold front and dryline. Additional convective development along both of these boundaries Tuesday afternoon appears possible, even though large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best behind the departing shortwave trough. Still, with moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop by both the NAM and RAP, any robust convection that can develop could produce isolated large hail and damaging winds, even as deep-layer shear remains modest. The Marginal Risk for hail/wind has been expanded northward a bit into eastern OK, AR, and towards the Mid-South vicinity to account for this possible afternoon/early evening development. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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