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SPC Mar 4, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday
across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main
threats.

...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level, southern-stream shortwave trough will be located over
the lower MS Valley at the start of the period Tuesday morning. This
feature should continue moving east-northeastward across the central
Gulf Coast states and Southeast through early Wednesday morning.
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Tuesday
morning across parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley in
association with modest lift attendant to the shortwave trough.
Although boundary-layer instability may be somewhat muted Tuesday
morning with lingering MLCIN, the presence of modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of a moist low-level
airmass should contribute to weak to moderate instability developing
by Tuesday afternoon east of a surface dryline across east TX, and
south of a cold front extending from central/eastern OK into the
Ozarks and mid MS Valley.

Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the ongoing activity
Tuesday morning, as enhanced mid-level winds with the shortwave
trough contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear to support some
updraft organization. Various high-resolution model guidance
suggests potential for this morning activity to consolidate into one
or more clusters as it spreads east-southeastward over the lower MS
Valley. If this occurs, then perhaps a greater damaging wind threat
may exist assuming sufficient destabilization is realized. Once
these thunderstorms move offshore, the isolated severe threat should
generally lessen across the lower MS Valley, except for in the
vicinity of the cold front and dryline.

Additional convective development along both of these boundaries
Tuesday afternoon appears possible, even though large-scale ascent
will be nebulous at best behind the departing shortwave trough.
Still, with moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop by both the NAM and
RAP, any robust convection that can develop could produce isolated
large hail and damaging winds, even as deep-layer shear remains
modest. The Marginal Risk for hail/wind has been expanded northward
a bit into eastern OK, AR, and towards the Mid-South vicinity to
account for this possible afternoon/early evening development.

..Gleason.. 03/04/2024

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