Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 4 Administrators Share Posted March 4 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across FL, GA, and the Carolinas into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low should develop over inland portions of GA to the southeastern VA vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. While isolated thunderstorms appear possible across these areas along/east of a front, greater instability should generally remain offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. A separate area of thunderstorm activity may also occur primarily Wednesday night across parts of the southern/central Plains as low-level moisture gradually advances northward over these regions ahead of a developing upper cyclone over the eastern Pacific and adjacent portions of the Southwest and northern Mexico. MUCAPE is currently expected to remain too limited to support a meaningful hail threat with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop with strengthening low-level warm advection through the end of the period. ...Florida Peninsula... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb around -10 to -12C) should aid in moderate instability developing across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon. Ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, will help foster scattered thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the day. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can develop. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Even though the overall severe threat may tend to remain fairly isolated, there is enough of a favorable signal in most guidance for convection to include a Marginal Risk for parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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