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SPC Mar 4, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is forecast to advance quickly northeastward across
FL, GA, and the Carolinas into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. A
related, weak surface low should develop over inland portions of GA
to the southeastern VA vicinity by Wednesday afternoon. While
isolated thunderstorms appear possible across these areas along/east
of a front, greater instability should generally remain offshore
over the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

A separate area of thunderstorm activity may also occur primarily
Wednesday night across parts of the southern/central Plains as
low-level moisture gradually advances northward over these regions
ahead of a developing upper cyclone over the eastern Pacific and
adjacent portions of the Southwest and northern Mexico. MUCAPE is
currently expected to remain too limited to support a meaningful
hail threat with any elevated thunderstorms that can develop with
strengthening low-level warm advection through the end of the
period.

...Florida Peninsula...
Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb around -10 to -12C) should
aid in moderate instability developing across parts of the central
and southern FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon. Ascent
associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet,
will help foster scattered thunderstorms moving eastward from the
eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the day. Even though
deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat
elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels should support an
isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can
develop. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with
convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime
heating. Even though the overall severe threat may tend to remain
fairly isolated, there is enough of a favorable signal in most
guidance for convection to include a Marginal Risk for parts of the
central/southern FL Peninsula.

..Gleason.. 03/04/2024

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