Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 4 Administrators Share Posted March 4 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the western two-thirds of the country, and is expected to gradually expand eastward with time. As the upper troughing expands, a surface baroclinic zone extending from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Great Lakes will gradually shift southeastward as a cold front, particularly during the second half of the period. Along and ahead of this boundary, convection -- and isolated severe weather -- is expected to evolve. ...Southern Upper Great Lakes vicinity southwestward to Texas... While weak capping should prevail across the southern Plains today, mixing in the vicinity of a weak dryline over central Texas could allow an isolated storm or two to develop, and possibly persist into the evening. Given steep lapse rates aloft and deep mixed layer, hail and/or wind exceeding severe levels could occur, in this highly conditional scenario. More likely development of showers and thunderstorms is expected along the surface baroclinic zone that extends northward into the Upper Great Lakes region, perhaps beginning late this afternoon across northern portions of the risk area and then expanding southward along the cold front with time. With moderately strong flow aloft atop the frontal zone across northern portions of the risk area, a couple of stronger/rotating storms may evolve. Though hail is expected to be the main risk given steep mid-level lapse rates, a locally strong gust or two, or brief tornado, would also be possible if a sustained, rotating storm can develop. As storms develop south-southwestward into the evening and overnight, into a region of weaker shear but steep lapse rates, potential for hail with a few of the strongest storms is expected. At this time, any focused areas for greater severe potential remain difficult to discern, and thus will maintain the broad MRGL risk area this forecast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity... Weak QG ascent is forecast to spread into Louisiana and adjacent Mississippi this afternoon and into this evening, as somewhat ill-defined/weak cyclonic disturbances in the southern-stream flow move across northern Mexico and Texas this morning, and begin affecting the Lower Mississippi Valley area. A gradual increase in convection through the afternoon is expected, as weak destabilization of the moist boundary layer occurs. Some increase in mid-level west-southwesterly flow with time will occur across this area, as the upper disturbance(s) approach, providing ample shear for a few stronger storms to potentially evolve. Hail would likely remain the primary severe risk with one or two of the strongest storms, though a stronger wind gust or even a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given weakly veering flow with height, and the moist boundary layer supporting surface-based updrafts. ..Goss/Broyles.. 03/04/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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