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SPC Mar 4, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

A multi-day severe event appears increasingly probable for the
latter portion of this week into the early weekend. For Day
4/Thursday, a 15% severe area has been introduced across parts of TX
into the lower MS Valley for mainly a large hail threat Thursday
night into early Friday morning. A southern-stream upper trough is
forecast to eject across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the
southern Plains in this time frame. Steep mid-level lapse rates
should overspread the gradually destabilizing warm sector, with the
ECMWF and its ensemble in particular suggesting that ample MUCAPE
will be available Thursday night across parts of north-central into
east TX. Any thunderstorms that can initiate in the strengthening
low-level warm advection regime across this region should pose a
threat for large hail given ample cloud-bearing shear to support
elevated supercells. Some of this activity could become
near-surface-based towards 12Z Friday morning across the lower MS
Valley as surface dewpoints quickly increase into the mid/upper 60s.

The severe threat will likely continue into Day 5/Friday, where a
15% severe area has been introduced from east TX into the lower MS
Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast states. There is still
some uncertainty in guidance regarding the ejection of the upper
trough and placement of related surface features. Regardless, there
is enough agreement that rich low-level moisture will advance inland
across these areas to support a threat for surface-based convection
ahead of whatever activity develops across north-central TX late
Thursday night into early Friday morning. Forecast soundings from
both the GFS and ECMWF show strong effective bulk shear that will
support the potential for supercells producing large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes. Convection may also grow upscale into bowing
line segments while continuing to pose a threat for severe/damaging
winds and a few tornadoes. The main uncertainty remains how far
inland/north the warm sector will be able to advance, particularly
across MS/AL. For now, have opted to remain conservative with the
northward extent of the 15% severe area by highlighting where at
least mid 60s surface dewpoints appear probable.

Some severe risk may persist into Day 6/Saturday across parts of the
Southeast towards the Carolinas. However, model guidance shows
substantial spread in the evolution of the upper trough at this
extended time frame. Convection may also have a tendency to outpace
the developing warm sector with time. While parts of FL/GA/SC/NC
will be monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area in
later outlooks, predictability for early this weekend remains too
low at this time.

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