Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 4 Administrators Share Posted March 4 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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