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SPC Mar 4, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest.
Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds
and even a tornado may also occur.

...East TX/LA/Western MS Today...
Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today
across the southern states, with several weak perturbations
affecting the area.  A warm and moist surface air mass is in place
across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s
will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.  Weak low-level warm
advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm
development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread
eastward toward southwest MS.  Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at
least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level
winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the
strongest cells.

...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL...
A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this
morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass.  All 12z
model guidance agrees on the development of showers and
thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many
solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and
slightly elevated.  Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. 
Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some
marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as
well.

...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley...
Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of
thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any
particular area.  Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a
conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably
warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail.
 However, considerably uncertainty exists.

..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024

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