Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 4 Administrators Share Posted March 4 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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