Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 4 Administrators Share Posted March 4 MD 0188 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST TX INTO LA AND SOUTHWEST MS Mesoscale Discussion 0188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Areas affected...far east TX into LA and southwest MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041734Z - 041930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon. Hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph) may accompany this activity. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours from far east TX into much of LA. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are fostering MLCAPE generally around 1500 J/kg at midday. Meanwhile, 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes around 30-35 kt will be marginally favorable for supercells. Already a few cells across LA have shown transient, weak rotation. This environment will mainly support isolated hail (a few instances of near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph). Vertically veering low-level flow will support some potential for low-level rotation, and regional VWP data shows favorably curved (albeit small) low-level hodographs. Generally weak low-level winds and a lack of well-defined surface boundaries will likely limit tornado potential. Given the expected transient and isolated nature of any stronger, well-organized cells, a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Hart.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31599450 32109443 32599403 32749353 32689248 31339083 29828929 29428933 29378996 29899154 30319276 30589356 31109424 31599450 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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