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Mesoscale Discussion 0188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Areas affected...far east TX into LA and southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041734Z - 041930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
through the afternoon. Hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter)
and gusty winds (to 50 mph) may accompany this activity.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage/intensity over the next few hours from far east TX into
much of LA. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are fostering MLCAPE generally
around 1500 J/kg at midday. Meanwhile, 0-6 km effective shear
magnitudes around 30-35 kt will be marginally favorable for
supercells. Already a few cells across LA have shown transient, weak
rotation. This environment will mainly support isolated hail (a few
instances of near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph).

Vertically veering low-level flow will support some potential for
low-level rotation, and regional VWP data shows favorably curved
(albeit small) low-level hodographs. Generally weak low-level winds
and a lack of well-defined surface boundaries will likely limit
tornado potential. 

Given the expected transient and isolated nature of any stronger,
well-organized cells, a watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 03/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   31599450 32109443 32599403 32749353 32689248 31339083
            29828929 29428933 29378996 29899154 30319276 30589356
            31109424 31599450 

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