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MD 0188 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST TX INTO LA AND SOUTHWEST MS
MD 0188 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Areas affected...far east TX into LA and southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 041734Z - 041930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
through the afternoon. Hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter)
and gusty winds (to 50 mph) may accompany this activity.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage/intensity over the next few hours from far east TX into
much of LA. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are fostering MLCAPE generally
around 1500 J/kg at midday. Meanwhile, 0-6 km effective shear
magnitudes around 30-35 kt will be marginally favorable for
supercells. Already a few cells across LA have shown transient, weak
rotation. This environment will mainly support isolated hail (a few
instances of near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph).

Vertically veering low-level flow will support some potential for
low-level rotation, and regional VWP data shows favorably curved
(albeit small) low-level hodographs. Generally weak low-level winds
and a lack of well-defined surface boundaries will likely limit
tornado potential. 

Given the expected transient and isolated nature of any stronger,
well-organized cells, a watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Hart.. 03/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31599450 32109443 32599403 32749353 32689248 31339083
            29828929 29428933 29378996 29899154 30319276 30589356
            31109424 31599450 

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