Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 4 Administrators Posted March 4 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/MO border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more View the full article Quote
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