Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 5 Administrators Share Posted March 5 SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the Midwest into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex region. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will continue to be the primary threats. ...MO/IL vicinity... Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from northeast MO into western/northern IL, in the vicinity of a cold front. Occasional supercell structures have been noted, though there has been a tendency for the front to undercut cells as they move northeast, limiting the duration of the severe threat with any particular storm. Some upscale growth is possible with time tonight as the front continues to move southeastward, which could lead to a modest uptick in damaging wind potential, while a threat for isolated hail may persist with the strongest individual cells. ...ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley... Generally disorganized convection persists this evening across parts of AR/LA/MS, though moderate buoyancy (with around 2000 J/kg noted on the 00Z LZK sounding) still supports some isolated hail potential with any cells that are able to pulse up in intensity. Some guidance continues to suggest the potential for a storm cluster to develop near the ArkLaTex region overnight, which could pose an isolated hail/wind threat given the presence of favorable moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear. ...Central TX... Isolated thunderstorm development has recently been noted across parts of the TX Hill Country, within a moderately unstable but weakly forced regime. While a very short-term hail threat could evolve with any sustained development, increasing MLCINH should generally limit the threat with time this evening. ..Dean.. 03/05/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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