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SPC Mar 5, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from
parts of the Midwest into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley and
ArkLaTex region. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will
continue to be the primary threats.

...MO/IL vicinity...
Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from
northeast MO into western/northern IL, in the vicinity of a cold
front. Occasional supercell structures have been noted, though there
has been a tendency for the front to undercut cells as they move
northeast, limiting the duration of the severe threat with any
particular storm. Some upscale growth is possible with time tonight
as the front continues to move southeastward, which could lead to a
modest uptick in damaging wind potential, while a threat for
isolated hail may persist with the strongest individual cells. 

...ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley...
Generally disorganized convection persists this evening across parts
of AR/LA/MS, though moderate buoyancy (with around 2000 J/kg noted
on the 00Z LZK sounding) still supports some isolated hail potential
with any cells that are able to pulse up in intensity. Some guidance
continues to suggest the potential for a storm cluster to develop
near the ArkLaTex region overnight, which could pose an isolated
hail/wind threat given the presence of favorable
moisture/instability and sufficient deep-layer shear. 

...Central TX...
Isolated thunderstorm development has recently been noted across
parts of the TX Hill Country, within a moderately unstable but
weakly forced regime. While a very short-term hail threat could
evolve with any sustained development, increasing MLCINH should
generally limit the threat with time this evening.

..Dean.. 03/05/2024

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