Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 5 Administrators Share Posted March 5 MD 0191 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 0191 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Areas affected...Far southeast Texas to southern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051816Z - 052015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms across southern Louisiana will continue to pose a severe hail risk through the early afternoon hours. This threat is expected to remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and just ahead of an outflow boundary across southern LA. Several reports of severe hail (including at least one report of 2 inch hail) have been noted with this activity over the past hour or so. The convective environment is obviously supportive of a severe hail threat, likely owing to ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE with around 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, and should remain so through early afternoon as storms approach the Gulf coast. However, storm longevity has been limited thus far based on MRMS echo top and VIL imagery. This is likely due to a combination of mean storm motions along the undercutting outflow boundary resulting in destructive storm interactions and somewhat rapid displacement to the cool side of the boundary. Storms developing ahead of the outflow may see slightly longer longevity and pose a more prolonged hail risk. Regardless, the severe threat should wane by mid/late afternoon as the boundary reaches the Gulf Coast, and the limited spatial/temporal duration of the threat limits confidence in the need for a watch. To the west into southeast TX, convective initiation appears less probable in the short term based on satellite trends - likely due to weaker low-level confluence along the boundary. However, the thermodynamic environment is comparatively better than southern LA with lifted indices approaching -10 C. A conditional severe hail/wind risk may materialize if initiation along the boundary can occur. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 29679348 29659388 29599411 29509433 29489447 29549457 29749477 29949483 30129479 30249463 30259413 30409361 30629294 30849222 30909082 30729045 30509000 30168965 29738958 29378968 29119000 28999041 29039086 29229121 29379137 29469152 29459178 29479208 29459227 29589263 29669310 29679348 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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