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MD 0191 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
MD 0191 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

Areas affected...Far southeast Texas to southern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 051816Z - 052015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms across southern Louisiana will
continue to pose a severe hail risk through the early afternoon
hours. This threat is expected to remain sufficiently limited to
preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along and just
ahead of an outflow boundary across southern LA. Several reports of
severe hail (including at least one report of 2 inch hail) have been
noted with this activity over the past hour or so. The convective
environment is obviously supportive of a severe hail threat, likely
owing to ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE with around 30-40 knots of effective bulk
shear, and should remain so through early afternoon as storms
approach the Gulf coast. However, storm longevity has been limited
thus far based on MRMS echo top and VIL imagery. This is likely due
to a combination of mean storm motions along the undercutting
outflow boundary resulting in destructive storm interactions and
somewhat rapid displacement to the cool side of the boundary. Storms
developing ahead of the outflow may see slightly longer longevity
and pose a more prolonged hail risk. 

Regardless, the severe threat should wane by mid/late afternoon as
the boundary reaches the Gulf Coast, and the limited
spatial/temporal duration of the threat limits confidence in the
need for a watch. To the west into southeast TX, convective
initiation appears less probable in the short term based on
satellite trends -  likely due to weaker low-level confluence along
the boundary. However, the thermodynamic environment is
comparatively better than southern LA with lifted indices
approaching -10 C. A conditional severe hail/wind risk may
materialize if initiation along the boundary can occur.

..Moore/Hart.. 03/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29679348 29659388 29599411 29509433 29489447 29549457
            29749477 29949483 30129479 30249463 30259413 30409361
            30629294 30849222 30909082 30729045 30509000 30168965
            29738958 29378968 29119000 28999041 29039086 29229121
            29379137 29469152 29459178 29479208 29459227 29589263
            29669310 29679348 

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