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SPC Mar 5, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS......

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Plains. Occasional
large hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this
activity.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move northeastward across the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low is likewise
forecast to develop northeastward from GA/SC into NC and southern VA
through Wednesday evening. A moist low-level airmass will be in
place across these areas ahead of a cold front. Still, greater
instability (and isolated severe potential) is generally expected to
remain over parts of FL, and offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream
waters.

Separate areas of thunderstorms may occur through the period across
parts of coastal southern CA as an upper trough/low with associated
cold mid-level temperatures moves eastward, and across parts of the
Great Basin. Weak forecast instability over these regions should
limit any appreciable severe threat.

...Central/South Florida...
Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb temperatures around -10 to
-12C) should aid in weak to moderate instability developing across
parts of the FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, although the
potential for ongoing morning convection may hinder daytime heating
to some extent. Still, ascent associated with the upper trough, and
a related mid/upper-level jet, should help sustain thunderstorms
moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula
through the morning and perhaps early afternoon. Even though
deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat
elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels may support an
isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can
persist. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with
convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen
with daytime heating. The potential for redevelopment behind
early-day convection appears rather uncertain/conditional, as the
better forcing attendant to the upper trough should be moving
northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Modest low-level moisture should advance northward across parts of
the southern/central Plains through the period as weak cyclogenesis
occurs over the southern High Plains. Even though large-scale ascent
should remain modest beneath a strong southern-stream mid/
upper-level jet, some guidance suggests that robust convection may
develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of north-central TX
in the vicinity of a weak front/dryline intersection. Around 30-40
kt of deep-layer shear in combination with steepened low/mid-level
lapse rates and at least weak instability should support some
updraft organization if convection can initiate. Isolated large hail
appears possible with the stronger cores, along with occasional
severe winds. Have included a Marginal Risk across parts of
north-central TX to account for this potential, although the overall
threat remains somewhat conditional given nebulous large-scale
forcing. Generally elevated convection may also occur across a
broader part of the southern/central Plains Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning as a southerly low-level jet strengthens
across these regions. This activity should remain sub-severe,
although small hail appears possible.

..15_ows.. 03/05/2024

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