Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 5 Administrators Share Posted March 5 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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