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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions
made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details.

..Squitieri.. 03/05/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024/

A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern
Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks
northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the
surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with
shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will
yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts
upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD,
far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be
limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially
with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests
that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated
wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive
fuels across the region.

Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen
across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low 
moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis
is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained
southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern
High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15
percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical
fire-weather conditions during the afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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