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SPC Mar 6, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTH TX...FL...SC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains.  Hail and gusty
winds should be the main threats with this activity.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast
toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low
is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west,
a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern
CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee
of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level
moisture expected across the southern Plains. 

The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the
Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped
convection with some lightning potential will also be possible
across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible.

...Florida Peninsula...
In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will
be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the
central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold
front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will
be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly
organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or
two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with
the strongest storms. 

...South Carolina and vicinity...
After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass
recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas.
MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel
vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential
for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be
marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and
or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this
time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of
central/eastern SC. 

...North Texas...
While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the
southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest
into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching
upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient
deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail
and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and
subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage.

..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024

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