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SPC Mar 6, 2024 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z


Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and
central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional
severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur.

...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico
is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern
Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High
Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature
should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX
Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return
of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of
TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface
low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the
central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely
serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat.

Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be
ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS.
This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a
southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small
to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust
cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization
should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on
the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the
ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle
mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation
late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline
intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and
vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop.

With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level
lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete
convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the
number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains
uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward
into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the
hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two
Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited
low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat.

Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early
Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This
activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells
can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also
occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An
isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and
south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern
MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain
weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks.

..Gleason.. 03/06/2024

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