Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 6 Administrators Share Posted March 6 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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