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SPC Mar 6, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z


Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from the ArkLaTex
vicinity across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the
central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night.

...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
A positively tilted upper trough will eject over the southern Plains
into the lower MS Valley on Friday. Enhanced west-southwesterly flow
associated with a mid/upper-level jet over these regions will aid in
strong deep-layer shear that will support organized severe
thunderstorms. There are still some differences in model guidance
regarding the placement and strength of multiple surface lows
attendant to the ejecting upper trough. The primary surface low of
interest should develop from the southern OK/north TX border
vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through Friday evening. Rich low-level
moisture will attempt to stream northward in tandem with a southerly
low-level jet. But, the potential for ongoing convection across
north/central TX Friday morning, and its subsequent evolution, may
complicate/hinder the northward extent of the greater low-level
moisture return across the lower MS Valley.

Even with this possible complication, it appears likely that
sufficient destabilization will occur across the warm sector, in
tandem with modest daytime heating, to support surface-based
thunderstorms. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear should foster
organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells capable
of producing tornadoes and large hail from east TX into LA/MS and
eventually the central Gulf Coast. Some 00Z guidance (including the
GFS/NAM) show a secondary area of large-hail potential closer to the
surface low and colder temperatures aloft/steeper mid-level lapse
rates across parts of eastern OK into the ArkLaTex. The Slight Risk
has been expanded northward to account for this potential. Damaging
winds may become an increasing concern with eastward extent across
the lower MS Valley/Southeast Friday evening and continuing
overnight into early Saturday morning, as thunderstorms should have
a tendency to grow into multiple bowing clusters. Low-level shear
will also remain strong enough to support a continued, nocturnal
tornado threat across these areas. 

Given continued model differences, the northward extent of greater
low-level moisture remains somewhat uncertain. The Slight Risk
delineates where confidence is currently highest in surface-based
convection with related risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. There is some chance that the Slight Risk will need to be
expanded northward across parts of AR/MS/AL if models trend towards
a deeper surface low and related warm front located farther north.

..Gleason.. 03/06/2024

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