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SPC Mar 6, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A severe threat should persist into Day 4/Saturday across parts of
the Southeast as a southern and northern-stream upper trough
gradually merge and amplify over the eastern CONUS. Latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance has increased confidence that
mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will be able to advance inland
across parts of north FL and southern/central GA ahead of convection
moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast vicinity. This moisture,
in concert with filtered daytime heating, should be sufficient to
support surface-based thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. Even
though low-level flow should have a tendency to veer and gradually
weaken through the day, sufficient low-level shear should remain in
place to foster updraft rotation and some risk for tornadoes,
especially Saturday morning. Damaging winds will also remain a
concern with any linear structures. A 15% severe area has been added
across parts of southeastern AL, north FL, and southern/central GA
where confidence is greatest that an organized severe-thunderstorm
risk will continue Saturday. There is less confidence in sufficient
destabilization occurring across SC/NC Saturday afternoon, but model
trends will be closely monitored.

Once the cold front associated with the upper trough clears the East
Coast, severe potential across the CONUS should remain minimal
through early next week. An increasing severe threat may exist by
the middle of next week across parts of the Plains as low-level
moisture returns northward ahead of another upper trough. But,
predictability remains low at that extended time frame.

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