Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 6 Administrators Share Posted March 6 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from the ArkLaTex vicinity across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will eject over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley on Friday. Enhanced west-southwesterly flow associated with a mid/upper-level jet over these regions will aid in strong deep-layer shear that will support organized severe thunderstorms. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the placement and strength of multiple surface lows attendant to the ejecting upper trough. The primary surface low of interest should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through Friday evening. Rich low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward in tandem with a southerly low-level jet. But, the potential for ongoing convection across north/central TX Friday morning, and its subsequent evolution, may complicate/hinder the northward extent of the greater low-level moisture return across the lower MS Valley. Even with this possible complication, it appears likely that sufficient destabilization will occur across the warm sector, in tandem with modest daytime heating, to support surface-based thunderstorms. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear should foster organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells capable of producing tornadoes and large hail from east TX into LA/MS and eventually the central Gulf Coast. Some 00Z guidance (including the GFS/NAM) show a secondary area of large-hail potential closer to the surface low and colder temperatures aloft/steeper mid-level lapse rates across parts of eastern OK into the ArkLaTex. The Slight Risk has been expanded northward to account for this potential. Damaging winds may become an increasing concern with eastward extent across the lower MS Valley/Southeast Friday evening and continuing overnight into early Saturday morning, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to grow into multiple bowing clusters. Low-level shear will also remain strong enough to support a continued, nocturnal tornado threat across these areas. Given continued model differences, the northward extent of greater low-level moisture remains somewhat uncertain. The Slight Risk delineates where confidence is currently highest in surface-based convection with related risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. There is some chance that the Slight Risk will need to be expanded northward across parts of AR/MS/AL if models trend towards a deeper surface low and related warm front located farther north. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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