Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 6 Administrators Posted March 6 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A severe threat should persist into Day 4/Saturday across parts of the Southeast as a southern and northern-stream upper trough gradually merge and amplify over the eastern CONUS. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has increased confidence that mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will be able to advance inland across parts of north FL and southern/central GA ahead of convection moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast vicinity. This moisture, in concert with filtered daytime heating, should be sufficient to support surface-based thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. Even though low-level flow should have a tendency to veer and gradually weaken through the day, sufficient low-level shear should remain in place to foster updraft rotation and some risk for tornadoes, especially Saturday morning. Damaging winds will also remain a concern with any linear structures. A 15% severe area has been added across parts of southeastern AL, north FL, and southern/central GA where confidence is greatest that an organized severe-thunderstorm risk will continue Saturday. There is less confidence in sufficient destabilization occurring across SC/NC Saturday afternoon, but model trends will be closely monitored. Once the cold front associated with the upper trough clears the East Coast, severe potential across the CONUS should remain minimal through early next week. An increasing severe threat may exist by the middle of next week across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture returns northward ahead of another upper trough. But, predictability remains low at that extended time frame. Read more View the full article Quote
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